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Jobs crisis could be short lived in V shape recovery

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​The UK economy is still on track for a quick or so-called V-shaped recovery, according to Bank of England economist Andy Haldane. - BBC

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It is not easy to find positive economic news for the UK economy but when the Bank of England says recovery is underway and faster than anticipated, that is good news.

Jobs are being shed by the thousand and many businesses are yet to reopen so we are at a critical point and many are discussing the balance between health and jobs. Scientists are suggesting the lockdown is ending too quickly, risking a 2nd wave. But there is a rising voice of people suggesting that now we have the Nightingale Hospitals and the necessary PPE equipment, we have to move on or risk damaging the economy to such an extent that unemployment will be more than 3 million, triggering an increase in many other health problems. Increased levels of homelessness, mental health, poverty, and social unrest will be just some of the challenges society will face.

Income tax will have to rise so people will have less spending power which will hold back growth.

So assuming the scientists are right, do we as a country now have to take a chance? According to the ONS, there have been 65,132  deaths above the usual number for this time of year so let's assume they are all Covid-19 related. Extremely sad for those who have passed and their family and friends.65,132 represents 0.1% of the population with fortunately 99.9% remaining alive.

The working population is around 33 million, and we risk 3 million or more being out of work. That is 9% of the working population. This summer, around 350,000 students graduate from University - what jobs will there be for them? What about the school leavers? Millions are still on furlough and will their jobs be there at the end?

Maybe it's time to put the economy first and accept the health risk and an inevitable increased death rate as a necessary evil to avoid a potentially far more painful and lasting effect on the wider population with a collapsed economy.

Let's hope the Bank is correct and the job crisis is short-lived. It's difficult to see it just yet.

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